For years, critics of Israel have recycled a tired refrain: “Israel has been warning that Iran is about to build a nuclear bomb for decades — and nothing has happened.” The implication is that Israel is fearmongering, exaggerating, or even manipulating global opinion to provoke conflict or entrench its regional advantage.
This narrative, though convenient for those seeking to delegitimise Israel, does not withstand scrutiny. Far from engaging in alarmist fantasy, Israel’s warnings about Iran’s nuclear ambitions have proven to be both prescient and restrained. The real failure lies not in Israeli assessment but in international willingness to respond with clarity and resolve.
A Record of Deception
Iran’s nuclear duplicity is not speculative — it is documented. In 2002, the world learned of secret nuclear facilities at Natanz and Arak, revealed not by Iran but by an opposition group in exile. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had violated its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by conducting undeclared enrichment activities.
In 2018, Israel exposed Iran’s “nuclear archive”, a covert cache of documents and plans showing how Iran maintained detailed records of a nuclear weapons program it publicly denied existed. The archive, smuggled out of a Tehran warehouse by Israeli intelligence, showed designs for nuclear warheads, weaponisation research, and missile integration — clear violations of Iran’s legal obligations.
The IAEA subsequently demanded explanations for traces of undeclared nuclear material found at several sites. Iran has refused full cooperation to this day.
Mis-characterising the Warnings
It is important to understand what Israel has — and has not — been saying.
Israeli intelligence has not claimed that Iran has already built a nuclear weapon. Rather, Israel has consistently warned that Iran is building the capability and infrastructure to do so rapidly if the regime decides to move ahead. This is known as achieving “nuclear breakout capacity.”
That threshold is no fantasy. According to recent assessments — including those by the IAEA — Iran now possesses enough highly enriched uranium to produce multiple nuclear warheads. Weaponisation, the final step, could take months. In other words, Iran is closer to a bomb today than ever before.
Israel’s warnings were not false — they were ignored.
The Double Standard
Critics often deflect from Iran’s actions by pointing to Israel’s own nuclear posture, asserting that Israel has no standing to object. This is a red herring.
Israel has never signed the NPT and maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity. It has not violated any international agreements, and has never threatened to annihilate any state. It has also never exported weapons of mass destruction or proliferated technology to terror groups.
Iran, by contrast, is an NPT signatory. It has routinely breached its commitments, developed ballistic missile technology, and openly arms proxy groups that target civilians from Gaza to Riyadh. The problem is not simply nuclear capacity — it is the nature of the regime that seeks it.
A nuclear Iran would not simply be another country with a bomb — it would be a fundamental threat to global security, given its genocidal rhetoric, its ideological extremism, and its proven willingness to act through terror proxies.
The JCPOA Was Not a Solution
Supporters of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) often claim that the deal “proved Israel wrong” by ensuring Iran’s compliance. But that is a gross oversimplification.
While Iran did adhere to parts of the deal, the agreement itself was fundamentally flawed:
- It sunset key restrictions, allowing Iran to resume large-scale enrichment after 10–15 years.
- It ignored Iran’s missile program and terror financing.
- It granted Iran massive sanctions relief without ending its regional aggression.
- It restricted inspections, barring IAEA access to military sites.
Israel objected not to the idea of a deal, but to that deal—a deal that effectively legitimised Iran’s path to a bomb on a delayed timeline, without dismantling its infrastructure or ideology.
And since the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, Iran has accelerated enrichment, cut off IAEA access, and intensified attacks through proxies. The nuclear threat is not hypothetical — it is unfolding in real time.
The Real Asymmetry
Iranian leaders openly fantasize about Israel’s destruction. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has called Israel a “cancerous tumour” that “must be eradicated.” The regime funds Hezbollah and Hamas, who boast of their intentions to wipe Israel off the map. Iran’s strategic doctrine is not defensive—it is expansionist, revolutionary, and explicitly eliminationist.
In contrast, Israel has never threatened Iran’s existence. It seeks containment, deterrence, and regional security. Any potential military strike would be a last-resort act of anticipatory self-defence, legally permissible under Article 51 of the UN Charter, especially if all diplomatic avenues have failed and the threat is imminent.
A Word to New Zealand
New Zealanders pride themselves on standing up for international law, peace, and human rights. But that stance cannot be selectively applied. Iran is not a misunderstood regional player—it is a serial violator of treaties, a state sponsor of terrorism, and a destabilising force from Beirut to Baghdad to Gaza.
To accuse Israel of “crying wolf” while Iran builds the wolf a den, feeds it, and trains it to kill, is not just a moral error—it is a betrayal of truth.
New Zealand must resist the trend of moral relativism in foreign policy. We must recognise that Israel’s warnings are not warmongering—they are the sober assessments of a nation that has learned, through history and tragedy, to take genocidal threats seriously.
The world ignored Hitler’s promises of destruction. Israel will not ignore Iran’s.
And neither should we.
