The situation in the Middle East is evolving rapidly and dramatically. These developments are laying the groundwork for long-term regional shifts, and an interim assessment may offer some clarity.
The brutal Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 shattered long-held assumptions on all sides of the conflict. Israel had operated under the belief that economic incentives — including the flow of aid into Gaza, permits for Gazan workers, and medical care in Israel — would temper Hamas. This assumption proved tragically misguided. Some even seized on the attack to spread misinformation suggesting that Israel had supported Hamas — a distortion of fact.
In reality, the October 7 assault was initiated by Iran through its proxy, Hamas, as a calculated trigger for broader regional escalation. The IRGC officer responsible for coordinating the operation was Saeed Izadi, who was later eliminated by Israel in June 2025. Iran’s proxy strategy had been developed over years by Qasem Soleimani (killed by the US in 2020) and included Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah’s former leader, Hassan Nasrallah (eliminated by Israel in 2024), played a prominent ideological and propaganda role within this network. The entire framework was supported by Iranian funding, amplified by a global propaganda machine led by Al Jazeera English, and reinforced through ideological influence in academia. As Hamas launched its assault, Iran’s other proxies swiftly mobilised.
Even before the IDF entered Gaza to free hostages and dismantle Hamas, riots and demonstrations erupted around the world. Some rallies even celebrated the attack while it was still ongoing.
The Biden administration, whether through ignorance or misplaced priorities, pushed Israel to exercise restraint. It insisted that humanitarian aid flow into Gaza — a wartime policy without precedent. Predictably, much of this aid was commandeered by Hamas, either to support its operations or to sell to civilians.
In response to Israeli strikes on Iranian officers in Syria who had been coordinating with Hezbollah, Iran launched “Operation True Promise 1” on 13 April 2024 — a barrage of missiles and drones. After Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Lebanon, Iran retaliated with “Operation True Promise 2.”
Meanwhile, the war in Gaza raged on. The Houthis in Yemen blocked shipping through the Red Sea, disrupting trade and causing serious losses to both Israel and Egypt. Egypt responded by charging exorbitant visa fees to Gazans attempting to escape the war.
For years, Iran has drawn out nuclear negotiations across four US administrations. Talks stalled entirely under President Trump, who also imposed sweeping economic sanctions. While appearing to negotiate, Iran accelerated its nuclear and missile programs. It even invented a fatwa in 2003 — allegedly issued by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — declaring nuclear weapons forbidden under Islamic law. No formal documentation of this religious decree has ever been found.
On 26 October 2024, the United States initiated a new round of diplomatic negotiations with Iran. At the same time, behind the scenes, Iran was intensifying its efforts to achieve military-grade nuclear capability and expanding its missile development program. These developments ultimately preceded Israel’s preemptive operation in Iran, later named “Nation Rises Like a Lion.”
Symbolism holds deep significance in both the Arab and Iranian worlds. For example, the sole of a shoe is considered the lowest and most impure article of clothing — hence why Muslims remove their shoes before entering a mosque. It is also why walking on the Israeli or American flag is seen as one of the gravest symbolic insults to those nations.
Israel understood the power of symbolism when it named its operation in Iran. The operation’s title, “Nation Rises Like a Lion,” carried layered meaning. The lion is a prominent symbol of the ancient Tribe of Judah — the largest biblical tribe, which included Jerusalem and lent its name to the historic region of Judea. At the same time, the lion was also a central figure in the pre-Islamic Revolution Iranian flag. This choice of symbolism was not coincidental; it served as a deliberate nod to the deep historical connection between the Jewish and Iranian peoples — a relationship that spans thousands of years.
Toward the operation’s end, the United States joined Israel in targeting heavily fortified underground nuclear sites — strikes requiring advanced munitions available only to the US, and even then in limited supply.
Israel also struck symbolic regime sites: Evin Prison, where political prisoners are held (and where prosecutor Ali Qanatkar was killed), and Iran’s countdown clock, which marked time to the supposed destruction of Israel. That clock is now updated manually.
Understanding the regime requires listening to its own words. Israel is the “little Satan,” America the “big Satan.” Flag desecrations are a fixture of state ceremonies. These slogans are not rhetorical flourishes — they reflect real intent. If Iran acquired nuclear weapons, Israel would be first in its sights.
Despite the military setback, Iran is trying to present the outcome as a divine victory. Hezbollah and Hamas have adopted similar narratives in the past. While the people of Gaza continue to suffer, their leaders claim triumph.
But why hasn’t Iran’s population risen up? Iran is a diverse society of many ethnic groups: Farsis, Kurds, Baluchis, Arabs, and others. Middle East scholar Professor Mordechai Kedar notes that related communities outside Iran are ready to support a domestic uprising. Yet according to Iran-born Israeli analyst Eliyahu Yossian, the chances of an uprising are slim. The opposition is fragmented: some demand independence, others autonomy, others simply the preservation of cultural identity.
Some who oppose the regime nonetheless support it in wartime, viewing external attacks as an affront to national dignity. And the regime has cracked down harshly on dissent. Many leaders from previous protests have vanished or been silenced.
Israel and the United States now recognise that regime change cannot be imposed from outside. It must come from within.
Iran’s diaspora — educated and mostly Westernised — largely supports regime change. But their influence is limited.
Inside Iran, air-raid sirens are a nightly reality. The regime claims to be catching Mossad agents and intercepting drones, though without substantiated evidence. Supreme Leader Khamenei disappeared from public view for weeks, and the Iranian foreign minister reportedly had to coordinate with Israel just to travel to Europe — a meeting that reportedly did not go well.
Change in the Middle East often simmers before it erupts. When it does, it can seem sudden. There is hope yet that the Iranian people — in all their diversity — may one day be free from the grip of extremism. Perhaps one day soon, flights between Tehran and Tel Aviv will once again be possible, as they were before 1979.
