The last Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research poll (May 2025) serves as a wake-up call for Western governments flirting with unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state. Far from weakening Hamas, the October 7 massacre it led dramatically increased its popularity among Palestinians — particularly in the West Bank.
Before the war, just 38% of Gazans expressed support for Hamas. After nearly a year of devastation, that figure has dropped by only a single percentage point to 37%. In other words, despite the catastrophic destruction Hamas has brought upon Gaza, more than a third of its residents still back the terror group.
Even more concerning is the West Bank. Support for Hamas there has more than doubled since October 7. The PCPSR poll shows that today, close to a third of West Bank Palestinians back Hamas as their preferred leadership. This surge in popularity is not in spite of the October 7 atrocities — it is because of them. Hamas’ message that violent “resistance” works has found new resonance.
The international community often imagines that unilateral recognition of “Palestine” would strengthen moderates and weaken extremists. The reality is clearly the opposite. Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority are viewed with contempt by their own people. Over 80% of Palestinians want Abbas to resign. When the Palestinian street looks at who stands up to Israel — and, in their eyes, to the world — they do not see Ramallah technocrats. They see Hamas fighters.
To reward Palestinians with a state at this moment is to reward Hamas. It would validate the strategy of terrorism: massacre civilians, start a war, and wait for international pressure to hand you legitimacy. Far from advancing peace, unilateral recognition will entrench extremism and delegitimize those Palestinians who seek compromise and coexistence.
New Zealand, like other democracies, must recognize this stark reality. A Palestinian state is not automatically a step toward peace if it is built on the rubble of Hamas’ terror campaign. Recognition without reform, without disarmament, and without dismantling Hamas’ stranglehold is not diplomacy — it is appeasement.
If the West wants to see a peaceful Palestinian state alongside Israel, it must be clear: violence will not be rewarded. Hamas must be rejected, not legitimized. Unilateral recognition today sends exactly the wrong message, both to Palestinians and to the wider world.
